According to the "Access Decision" and "Financial Control Measures", the People's Bank of China will implement market access management for How to operate a new high stockfinancial holding companies, and include financial holding companies that meet the following conditions into supervision: First, the controlling shareholder and actual controller are domestic non-financial enterprises, Natural persons and recognized legal persons; the second is the substantial control of two or more types of financial institutions; the third is the substantial control of the total assets or entrusted management assets of financial institutions to a certain scale, or the establishment of a financial holding company is required in accordance with the requirements of macro-prudential supervision.
The pattern of this bull market has not changed, and the epidemic is only a disturbance. Since 2019, we have been emphasizing that 2440 points for the Shanghai Composite Index in 19 years = 998 points in 2005, and 2440 points are the starting point for the sixth round of the A-share bull market. The sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will have an impact on short-term fundamentals, but the three logics of the bull market have not wavered, namely the cycle of bull and bear, the bottoming of corporate profits, and the bias of major assets to the stock market. For details, see "Now Similar to 2005" -20190217", "Bull Market Has Three Stages-20190303", "Bull Turns the Universe-A-Share Investment Strategy 2020-20191117". Regarding the impact of the epidemic on fundamentals, we are reporting "Confidence and Patience-New Coronary Pneumonia vs. SARS-20200201", "Industry Demand Under the Epidemic: Decrease and Increase-New Coronary Pneumonia Research Series 1-20200207", " Analysis of the Impact of the Epidemic on Corporate Profits-New Coronary Pneumonia Research Series 2-20200213” has done some analysis. As a whole, the new crown epidemic mainly affects the fundamentals of the first quarter, but the epidemic has little impact on the overall fundamentals of the year. Historically The average proportion of profit in March for the whole year was 9% and 1%. With the subsequent hedging policy, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of corporate net profit in the next few quarters will rebound significantly, and the pattern of annual performance will remain unchanged. Although the overall pattern of this bull market has not changed, the rhythm of the bull market has been affected by the epidemic. Looking back on the trend since the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s 2440 points in 19 years, we define 2440-3288 points as a bull market rise. The original 3288-2733 points bull market and two waves have been fully adjusted. From early August to early December 19, 2733-3040-2857 points belong to the bull market. The early turnaround of the three-wave rise was gaining momentum. The three-wave rise of the spring market and bull market at 2857 on December 3rd, 2019 gradually unfolded, and the sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia disrupted the rhythm of the three-wave rise. Affected by the epidemic, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted to 2685 points on February 4, falling below 2733 points, and the two-wave adjustment of the bull market was extended. After analyzing the previous report, we believe that 2685 points are very likely to be the lowest point of this adjustment. It was previously judged that the three waves of the bull market began in early December 19, because the time and space when the inventory cycle bottomed out at that time, the monthly fundamental data has indeed begun to stabilize and rise. Now affected by the epidemic, the fundamentals of 20Q1 will see a second bottom. Originally, we judged that the net profit of listed companies in 19Q3 will be 9% year-on-year. After the bottom, the bottom of the arc has rebounded. Now affected by the epidemic, the net profit of listed companies in 20Q1 will slow down significantly year-on-year , Even basically no growth, that is, the fundamental shape has changed from the arc bottom of 19Q3 to the W bottom of 19Q3-20Q1. Of course, we believe that the net profit of listed companies will still rebound after the second quarter year-on-year, and will reach 10% in 2020. -12%, still higher than the 8% in 19 years.
①Recently, credit bond defaults have frequently impacted market sentiment. Historical data shows that credit defaults have little impact on the stock market, and credit spreads are unlikely to widen significantly during economic recovery. ②The bull-bear cycle is an objective law. The bull market that began in early 19th is still on its way, and it is currently in the two-wheel drive phase of capital and fundamentals. ③In the short and medium term, post-cyclical finance is better, and the main line of the medium and long term is still the technology that represents transformation and upgrading.
In terms of concepts, the sub-new stocks sector plunged 35%, which was much higher than other sectors. Among them, Yazhen Home Furnishing, Huichang Communication, ArcherMind, Opcom, New Rayneng and other stocks dropped their limit; in addition, the shared bicycle index fell by 06 %, chip localization, poverty alleviation, OLED and other sectors all fell by more than 7%. Relatively speaking, the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone, Fujian Free Trade Zone, Yangtze River Economic Belt, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Free Trade Zone, and Beibu Gulf Free Trade Zone all grew by more than 3%.
Reduced the deposit reserve ratio three times, increased the re-loan rediscount quota of 8 trillion yuan, and introduced a credit loan support plan for small and micro enterprises... Since this year, my country's monetary policy has continued to exert force. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, year-on-year An additional 42 trillion yuan. The continuous flow of financial water has given full momentum to economic development. The figure of 109 trillion yuan means that credit not only has a quantitative growth, but also a qualitative improvement:
What is the concept of 401.2 billion market value? Let's look at the market value of other companies after the close yesterday. The total market value of dairy giant Yili is 187 billion, the total market value of Master Kong is 69.4 billion, How to operate a new high stockand the total market value of Haitian Flavor is much higher than that of Yili and Master Kong. It is a veritable hidden champion. The market value of Zhongju Hi-tech, the second largest in the seasoning industry, is only 44.8 billion, and Haitian Flavor Industry is nearly 9 times its market value.
Fifth, the epidemic is gradually under control, and there is good news for vaccines. According to Xinhua Finance News on the 25th, Shi Shengyi, deputy general manager of Sinopharm Group Co., Ltd., said that Sinopharm Group has submitted a new crown vaccine application to the State Food and Drug Administration. Affected by this news, Sinopharm (600511) straight-line daily limit.
The stocks with greater potential may come from companies in the following four areas: 1. Companies that benefit from the company's capacity expansion, market demand picking up, and product prices rising, and other companies with rapid growth in their main business. 2. Industry companies supported by policies. 3. Companies with relatively good fundamentals and smaller shares. 4. Companies with sustained growth in performance but limited previous growth and low valuations.